Kelly method: learn and know how to manage your bets

You know this very well, to make profits over time at sports betting, you must follow a rigorous management of your budget. All professional bettors use a method to master their bets and impose limits. This allows them to never lose all of their bankroll and make money on the long term.

Besides, there are a lot of methods to calculate the best bet for a sporting event. In this article of Guide, we will present the assets to you as well as the limits of the Kelly method, a strategy based on a very simple calculation. Up to you !

What is the Kelly method?

You may be wondering what the Kelly method is? First of all, be aware that this is a mathematical formula which aims to help you find the ideal amount of a bet. Initially, this calculation was planned for lottery games as well as for investments in finance. In itself, the Kelly method should increase the growth rate of your balance over a long term.

It was the American mathematician, John Larry Kelly Jr. who has implemented a computing criterion allowing many people to win long-term gains. As the formula can only apply on results that do not depend on each other, it remains a method favored by online bettors.

Besides, concerning sports betting, you can easily use the Kelly method to manage your bankroll. In itself, you will have to analyze the dimensions as well as the probabilities of winning your bet in order to bet the ideal sum.

How to calculate the ideal amount to bet?

Who says mathematics, says calculation to perform. Indeed, to find the optimal amount of your bet, you will have to carry out a small operation. Do not fear, it is very easy to achieve and do not take much time!

Remember confidence clues. If an online bookmaker offers you a 3.50 rating for the victory of the Montreal impact, know that it considers that the team is 28.5 % chance of winning the meeting. The calculation to be made: (1/3.50) x 100 = 28.5.

To apply Kelly's formula, you can resume the bookmaker's confidence index, but also offer yours. For example, you think that Montreal's impact has 35 % chance of winning the meeting.

  • (Cote x your confidence index % - 1) / (Cost - 1) = Kelly formula.
  • (3.50 x 35% - 1) / (3.50 - 1) = 9% to bet on the impact of Montreal for this match.

Some tips for using the Kelly method

As you have just noticed, the Kelly method will be useful and effective, only if you achieve a good estimate of your confidence index. You will therefore have to analyze sports meetings and carefully estimate each probability of winning your prognosis. Be careful, because if your confidence index is not precise, the Kelly method could make you lose money.

In addition, the Kelly method sometimes offers you an ideal sum to bet very high. Do not rush and think of setting you certain limits not to be exceeded. We strongly advise you to never bet more than 10 % of your budget.

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